dXt=μ(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dWtdX_t=\mu(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dW_tdXt​=μ(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dWt​Vt+12σ2S2VSS+rS VS−rV=0V_t+\tfrac12\sigma^2 S^2 V_{SS}+rS\,V_S-rV=0Vt​+21​σ2S2VSS​+rSVS​−rV=0ρV=sup⁡a{f+b Vx+12σ2Vxx}\rho V=\sup_{a}\{f+b\,V_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 V_{xx}\}ρV=asup​{f+bVx​+21​σ2Vxx​}−ut−ν Δu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)-u_t-\nu\,\Delta u+H(x,\nabla u)=f(x,m)−ut​−νΔu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)xy=kxy=kxy=kIL(r)=2r1+r−1\mathrm{IL}(r)=\frac{2\sqrt{r}}{1+r}-1IL(r)=1+r2r​​−1CVaRα=11−α∫α1VaRβ dβ\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha=\frac{1}{1-\alpha}\int_\alpha^1 \mathrm{VaR}_\beta\,d\betaCVaRα​=1−α1​∫α1​VaRβ​dβx˙i=xi[(Ax)i−x⊤Ax]\dot{x}_i=x_i\big[(Ax)_i-x^\top Ax\big]x˙i​=xi​[(Ax)i​−x⊤Ax]C=E[e−rT(ST−K)+]C=\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-rT}(S_T-K)^+\big]C=E[e−rT(ST​−K)+]df=(ft+μfx+12σ2fxx)dt+σfx dWtdf=\big(f_t+\mu f_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 f_{xx}\big)dt+\sigma f_x\,dW_tdf=(ft​+μfx​+21​σ2fxx​)dt+σfx​dWt​∂tm−∇ ⁣⋅(m ∇pH)=ν Δm\partial_t m-\nabla\!\cdot(m\,\nabla_p H)=\nu\,\Delta m∂t​m−∇⋅(m∇p​H)=νΔmΔ=∂V∂S,Γ=∂2V∂S2\Delta=\frac{\partial V}{\partial S},\quad \Gamma=\frac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2}Δ=∂S∂V​,Γ=∂S2∂2V​λ(δ)=A e−κδ\lambda(\delta)=A\,e^{-\kappa\delta}λ(δ)=Ae−κδd1=ln⁡(S/K)+(r+12σ2)TσTd_{1}=\frac{\ln(S/K)+(r+\tfrac12\sigma^2)T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}d1​=σT​ln(S/K)+(r+21​σ2)T​u(x)=sup⁡τ E[e−rτg(Xτ)]u(x)=\sup_{\tau}\,\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-r\tau}g(X_\tau)\big]u(x)=τsup​E[e−rτg(Xτ​)]κ=γ σ2/η\kappa=\sqrt{\gamma\,\sigma^2/\eta}κ=γσ2/η​E[dWt2]=dt\mathbb{E}[dW_t^2]=dtE[dWt2​]=dtJ(π)=E[∑tγtrt]J(\pi)=\mathbb{E}\big[\textstyle\sum_t \gamma^t r_t\big]J(π)=E[∑t​γtrt​]dXt=μ(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dWtdX_t=\mu(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dW_tdXt​=μ(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dWt​Vt+12σ2S2VSS+rS VS−rV=0V_t+\tfrac12\sigma^2 S^2 V_{SS}+rS\,V_S-rV=0Vt​+21​σ2S2VSS​+rSVS​−rV=0ρV=sup⁡a{f+b Vx+12σ2Vxx}\rho V=\sup_{a}\{f+b\,V_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 V_{xx}\}ρV=asup​{f+bVx​+21​σ2Vxx​}−ut−ν Δu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)-u_t-\nu\,\Delta u+H(x,\nabla u)=f(x,m)−ut​−νΔu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)xy=kxy=kxy=kIL(r)=2r1+r−1\mathrm{IL}(r)=\frac{2\sqrt{r}}{1+r}-1IL(r)=1+r2r​​−1CVaRα=11−α∫α1VaRβ dβ\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha=\frac{1}{1-\alpha}\int_\alpha^1 \mathrm{VaR}_\beta\,d\betaCVaRα​=1−α1​∫α1​VaRβ​dβx˙i=xi[(Ax)i−x⊤Ax]\dot{x}_i=x_i\big[(Ax)_i-x^\top Ax\big]x˙i​=xi​[(Ax)i​−x⊤Ax]C=E[e−rT(ST−K)+]C=\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-rT}(S_T-K)^+\big]C=E[e−rT(ST​−K)+]df=(ft+μfx+12σ2fxx)dt+σfx dWtdf=\big(f_t+\mu f_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 f_{xx}\big)dt+\sigma f_x\,dW_tdf=(ft​+μfx​+21​σ2fxx​)dt+σfx​dWt​∂tm−∇ ⁣⋅(m ∇pH)=ν Δm\partial_t m-\nabla\!\cdot(m\,\nabla_p H)=\nu\,\Delta m∂t​m−∇⋅(m∇p​H)=νΔmΔ=∂V∂S,Γ=∂2V∂S2\Delta=\frac{\partial V}{\partial S},\quad \Gamma=\frac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2}Δ=∂S∂V​,Γ=∂S2∂2V​λ(δ)=A e−κδ\lambda(\delta)=A\,e^{-\kappa\delta}λ(δ)=Ae−κδd1=ln⁡(S/K)+(r+12σ2)TσTd_{1}=\frac{\ln(S/K)+(r+\tfrac12\sigma^2)T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}d1​=σT​ln(S/K)+(r+21​σ2)T​u(x)=sup⁡τ E[e−rτg(Xτ)]u(x)=\sup_{\tau}\,\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-r\tau}g(X_\tau)\big]u(x)=τsup​E[e−rτg(Xτ​)]κ=γ σ2/η\kappa=\sqrt{\gamma\,\sigma^2/\eta}κ=γσ2/η​E[dWt2]=dt\mathbb{E}[dW_t^2]=dtE[dWt2​]=dtJ(π)=E[∑tγtrt]J(\pi)=\mathbb{E}\big[\textstyle\sum_t \gamma^t r_t\big]J(π)=E[∑t​γtrt​]dXt=μ(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dWtdX_t=\mu(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dW_tdXt​=μ(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dWt​Vt+12σ2S2VSS+rS VS−rV=0V_t+\tfrac12\sigma^2 S^2 V_{SS}+rS\,V_S-rV=0Vt​+21​σ2S2VSS​+rSVS​−rV=0ρV=sup⁡a{f+b Vx+12σ2Vxx}\rho V=\sup_{a}\{f+b\,V_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 V_{xx}\}ρV=asup​{f+bVx​+21​σ2Vxx​}−ut−ν Δu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)-u_t-\nu\,\Delta u+H(x,\nabla u)=f(x,m)−ut​−νΔu+H(x,∇u)=f(x,m)xy=kxy=kxy=kIL(r)=2r1+r−1\mathrm{IL}(r)=\frac{2\sqrt{r}}{1+r}-1IL(r)=1+r2r​​−1CVaRα=11−α∫α1VaRβ dβ\mathrm{CVaR}_\alpha=\frac{1}{1-\alpha}\int_\alpha^1 \mathrm{VaR}_\beta\,d\betaCVaRα​=1−α1​∫α1​VaRβ​dβx˙i=xi[(Ax)i−x⊤Ax]\dot{x}_i=x_i\big[(Ax)_i-x^\top Ax\big]x˙i​=xi​[(Ax)i​−x⊤Ax]C=E[e−rT(ST−K)+]C=\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-rT}(S_T-K)^+\big]C=E[e−rT(ST​−K)+]df=(ft+μfx+12σ2fxx)dt+σfx dWtdf=\big(f_t+\mu f_x+\tfrac12\sigma^2 f_{xx}\big)dt+\sigma f_x\,dW_tdf=(ft​+μfx​+21​σ2fxx​)dt+σfx​dWt​∂tm−∇ ⁣⋅(m ∇pH)=ν Δm\partial_t m-\nabla\!\cdot(m\,\nabla_p H)=\nu\,\Delta m∂t​m−∇⋅(m∇p​H)=νΔmΔ=∂V∂S,Γ=∂2V∂S2\Delta=\frac{\partial V}{\partial S},\quad \Gamma=\frac{\partial^2 V}{\partial S^2}Δ=∂S∂V​,Γ=∂S2∂2V​λ(δ)=A e−κδ\lambda(\delta)=A\,e^{-\kappa\delta}λ(δ)=Ae−κδd1=ln⁡(S/K)+(r+12σ2)TσTd_{1}=\frac{\ln(S/K)+(r+\tfrac12\sigma^2)T}{\sigma\sqrt{T}}d1​=σT​ln(S/K)+(r+21​σ2)T​u(x)=sup⁡τ E[e−rτg(Xτ)]u(x)=\sup_{\tau}\,\mathbb{E}\big[e^{-r\tau}g(X_\tau)\big]u(x)=τsup​E[e−rτg(Xτ​)]κ=γ σ2/η\kappa=\sqrt{\gamma\,\sigma^2/\eta}κ=γσ2/η​E[dWt2]=dt\mathbb{E}[dW_t^2]=dtE[dWt2​]=dtJ(π)=E[∑tγtrt]J(\pi)=\mathbb{E}\big[\textstyle\sum_t \gamma^t r_t\big]J(π)=E[∑t​γtrt​]
POL Labs
[1]Home[2]Who we are[3]What we do[4]Method[5]Publications[6]Careers
Blog
POL Finance
© 2026 POL Finance — All Rights Reserved
← All posts

Tagged

#risk

1 post.

Sep 23, 2025Research

Research

Stochastic Risk Modeling for CDP Defaults

by Dipa · 3 min

Collateralized Debt Positions (CDPs) are the backbone of many DeFi lending and stablecoin systems, such as Sky’s USDS. They allow users to borrow against crypto collateral while keeping their exposure to the underlying asset. To protect solvency, protocols impose…